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ResearchFeb 5, 2026· 10 min

The Economics of AI Development: Who Actually Captures Value?

Following the Money

We spent time mapping out where revenue actually flows in the current AI ecosystem. The results are stark but not surprising. Foundation model providers capture the largest share. Cloud infrastructure providers take the next cut. Enterprise SaaS companies that wrap AI into existing workflows take another substantial piece. By the time you get to the independent developers actually building novel tools and agents, there's almost nothing left.

This isn't a new pattern. The early web had the same problem before platforms like Shopify and Stripe gave independent creators the infrastructure to compete. Mobile development had a similar imbalance before the app stores (imperfect as they are) created distribution channels for individual developers.

The Builder's Dilemma

Right now, a talented developer who builds an excellent AI agent faces a frustrating decision. They can open-source it and watch a larger company fork it, add a payment layer, and commercialize it. They can try to build a whole company around a single tool, which is wildly disproportionate overhead for what's essentially a focused piece of software. Or they can keep it as a side project and accept that it won't generate meaningful income.

All three options are suboptimal. The market is essentially telling skilled builders: your individual contribution isn't worth compensating directly. We think that's wrong, and we think it's fixable.

Restructuring Value

The fix requires infrastructure that doesn't currently exist. You need a discovery layer so people can find tools. You need a distribution layer so tools can be integrated easily. You need a billing layer so transactions can happen without friction. And you need a trust layer so buyers know what they're getting.

That's what Kainotomic is building. Layer by layer, we're constructing the infrastructure that allows the people who create the most innovative AI tools to capture a fair portion of the value they generate.

The Kainotomic Team
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The Economics of AI Development: Who Actually Captures Value? | Kainotomic